Shipbuilding Orders Scheduled Until 2030: Insights and Trends

CargoesPi shipping news: 31 December, 2024

Record-High Orders Extend to 2030

The global shipbuilding market continues to heat up, with newbuilding prices on the rise and Chinese shipyards fully booked with orders extending as far as 2030. However, industry experts express concerns about potential over-expansion by shipyards and supply chain challenges, especially for main engine manufacturers and other critical components.

Newbuilding Prices Reach a Decade High

According to the latest data from Clarkson, as of December 27th, the price for 13,000/13,500 TEU container ships has reached $183 million, a 6% increase from $172 million on January 5th earlier this year. This marks the highest price point since 2010.

Order Volume Reaches New Heights

Clarkson reports that the total number of ships ordered in 2024 amounted to 2,342 vessels, with a combined 64.3 million CGT and 163.3 million DWT, the highest contracting volume since 2007. Among shipbuilding groups, China State Shipbuilding Corporation leads with 810 ships (30.3 million CGT), followed by South Korea’s HD Hyundai with 445 ships (19.5 million CGT).

Among China's three major shipbuilders, Hudong-Zhonghua delivered 69 vessels in 2024 and secured 128 new orders, reflecting year-on-year growth of 19% and 70%, respectively. As of December, Hudong-Zhonghua holds 91 orders, Jiangnan Shipyard 99, and Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding 83, highlighting China’s dominance in the global shipbuilding industry.

Capacity Constraints Amid Surging Demand

Compared to the previous shipbuilding cycle, global shipyard numbers and capacity have significantly decreased. Following a peak in 2011, shipbuilding capacity declined by 40% by 2020 as the industry phased out excess capacity. Clarkson notes that outside of China, the potential for restarting or expanding global shipbuilding capacity remains limited during this cycle.

Profitability Boosted by Falling Steel Prices

As of December 27th, the composite steel index was reported at 128.7 points, a 14.54% drop from 150.6 points at the beginning of the year. This decline in steel prices has widened profit margins for shipyards, providing a financial buffer amid surging order volumes.

Future Outlook: Sustained Demand and High Prices

Optimistic market expectations, coupled with the green transition in shipping, have driven strong demand for newbuilds and accelerated the replacement of older vessels. With limited dry dock availability and order books filled through 2030, ship prices are expected to remain high. By 2025, Chinese shipyards are projected to further expand profitability, with many high-value orders slated for delivery starting in 2026.